| 2009
Market Outcomes;
2010 -2014 Scenario Forecast |
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JAPAN
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PAGES
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JAPAN
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J1 - J58
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1
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Executive
Summary |
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2
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2009
PV Market In Japan |
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2.1 Market Analysis By Customer Type ...........................................................................................................
(a) Residential .................................................................................................................................
(b) New Home Market via Home Builders ...............................................................................................
(c) Commercial/Industrial Segments .....................................................................................................
(d) Public and Other Non-Residential Segments ......................................................................................
2.2 Market Analysis By Application Surface Type ...............................................................................................
(a) Sloped Rooftop installations ..........................................................................................................
(b) Building Integrated Photovoltaic Systems (BIPV) ...............................................................................
(c) Ground-Mounted Installations ........................................................................................................
2.3 Market Analysis By System Power .............................................................................................................
2.4 Market Analysis By Region .......................................................................................................................
(a)
National market by Region ............................................................................................................
(b)
Residential Market by Region and Prefecture ....................................................................................
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3
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Market Pricing |
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3.1 Module Pricing
(a) Residential Segment ....................................................................................................................
(b) Non-Residential Segment .............................................................................................................
(c) Commercial/Industrial Segments ....................................................................................................
(d) Public and Other Non-Residential Segments .....................................................................................
3.2 Installed System Pricing..........................................................................................................................
(a)
Residential Segment....................................................................................................................
(b) Non-Residential Segment .............................................................................................................
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4
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Policy
Environment and PV Funding |
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4.1 Economic, Energy And Political Background .................................................................................................
4.2 Funding ...............................................................................................................................................
(a) Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) Programs.................................................................
(b) Ministry of the Environment .........................................................................................................
(c) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT)
.......................................................................
(d) Regional Funding Programs............................................................................................................
4.3 Electric Utilities Involvement....................................................................................................................
(a) Electricity Rates.........................................................................................................................
(b) Green Power Fund by Electric Utilities ............................................................................................
(c) Renewable Energy Portfolio...........................................................................................................
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5
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Distribution
And Marketing |
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5.1 Module Distribution Channels..................................................................................................................
(a) PV Module Markers' Sales/Design Division........................................................................................
(b) Local Electricians/Installers..........................................................................................................
(c) Homebuilders ............................................................................................................................
(d) Regional Electric Contractors/Engineers or System
Engineers .............................................................
(e) General Contractors....................................................................................................................
(f) OEMs or Building Material Integrators .............................................................................................
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6
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Market
Forecast (2010 - 2014) |
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6.1 National Market Demand.........................................................................................................................
6.2
Demand by Market Segment (2010 - 2014) ...............................................................................................
(a)
Residential Segment...................................................................................................................
(b)
New Home Market via Home Builders .............................................................................................
(c)
Commercial/Industrial Segment ....................................................................................................
(d)
Public and Government Segment...................................................................................................
(e)
Utility .....................................................................................................................................
6.3 Distribution Channels ............................................................................................................................
6.4 Market Summary...................................................................................................................................
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List
of Figures |
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Figure 1 Newly Installed Capacity In Japan By
Customer Type In 2009 (%) ...........................................................
Figure 2 Newly Installed Capacity In Japan By
Customer Type in 2008 and 2009 (MW) ............................................
Figure 3 Quarterly Japan Residential PV System
Sales .......................................................................................
Figure 4 Percentage of Newly Installed PV Capacity
by Application Surface Type ...................................................
Figure 5 Percentage of Newly Installed PV Capacity
by System Size in 2009 .........................................................
Figure 6 Percentage of Newly Installed PV Capacity
by System Size in 2009 .........................................................
Figure 7 Percentage of Newly Installed Residential
PV Capacity in Japan by Region in 2008 vs. 2009...........................
Figure 8 Japanese Residential PV Module Pricing
2004-2008 ...............................................................................
Figure 9 Japanese Non-Residential Module Prices
by System Size ........................................................................
Figure 10 Number of PV Rebate Programs by Region
in 2009................................................................................
Figure 11 Local Government Residential PV Subsidy
in 2009 ...............................................................................
Figure 12 Trend of Average Residential Electricity
Cost in Japan .........................................................................
Figure 13 Japan PV Downstream by Major Channel............................................................................................
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List
of Tables |
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Table
1 Japanese PV Market Size (MW) 2005-2009 ..........................................................................................
Table 2 Commercial/Industrial PV Projects above
200 kW ...................................................................................
Table 3 2009 Public PV Projects over 100 kW
...................................................................................................
Table 4 Sloped Rooftop PV Projects Examples
in 2009 ........................................................................................
Table 5 Flat Roof-top PV Projects Examples
in 2009 ..........................................................................................
Table 6 Ground-Mounted PV Projects Examples
in 2009 ......................................................................................
Table 7 BIPV Projects Examples in 2009 ..........................................................................................................
Table 8 Regional Residential PV System Installation
...........................................................................................
Table 9 Japanese Non-Residential Module Sample
Data (Field Test Program)...........................................................
Table 10 Japanese Non-Residential Module Sample
Data ....................................................................................
Table 11 METI Requested Funding for PV Related
Programs (¥M) .........................................................................
Table 12 2009 J-PEC Registered, Program Eligible
PV Modules..............................................................................
Table 13 Japanese Feed-in Tariff Rates for
Agreements made by 03/31/2011..........................................................
Table 14 Local Subsidy Programs (as of December
2009) ...................................................................................
Table 15 Ten Investor-owned Electric Power
Companies in Japan.........................................................................
Table 16 Residential Seasonal, TOU rates (¥/kWh)
(May 2010).............................................................................
Table 17 Japan Market Demand Forecast by Scenario
(2010-2014).......................................................................
Table 18 Japan Market Demand by Segment (2009-2014)
in MW ..........................................................................
Table 19 J-PEC Registered, Program Eligible
PV Modules (as of May 2010)...............................................................
Table 20 Local Residential PV Subsidies (¥/kW)
for FY2010..................................................................................
Table 21 Federal-Funded Commercial/Industrial
PV Projects: 2009 Selection PV Systems (>500 kW) ...........................
Table 22 METI's Promoting the Local Introduction
of New Energy Program: 2009 Selection PV Systems (>200 kW).........
Table 23 Utility "Mega Solar" Plan (as of May
2010)............................................................................................
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CHINA
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C1
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1
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Executive
Summary |
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2
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2009
PV Market In China |
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2.1 Market Analysis By Application Segment .....................................................................................................
(a)
On-Grid Ground-Mounted ..............................................................................................................
(b) On-Grid Building-Mounted .............................................................................................................
(c) Off-Grid Rural & Industrial .............................................................................................................
(d) Off-Grid Rural & Industrial .............................................................................................................
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2.2 Market Analysis By System Power Size .......................................................................................................
2.3
Market Analysis By Region .......................................................................................................................
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3
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Market Pricing |
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4
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Policy
Environment and PV Funding |
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4.1 Economic Policy ...................................................................................................................................
4.2 Energy Policy ......................................................................................................................................
4.3 Renewable Energy Policy .......................................................................................................................
4.4 Solar PV Policy and Programs .................................................................................................................
(a) Solar Rooftops.....................................................................................................................
(b) The Golden Sun Program........................................................................................................
(c) PV Feed-in Tariffs (FITs)........................................................................................................
4.5 National PV Policies and Programs - Off-grid Rural ........................................................................................
(a) The Golden Sun Program (Off-grid)...........................................................................................
(b) The Brightness Program .........................................................................................................
(c)
The Silk Road and PV Village Programs......................................................................................
(d) CRESP................................................................................................................................
4.6 Regional PV Policies & Programs ...............................................................................................................
(a) Beijing ................................................................................................................................
(b) Guangdong..........................................................................................................................
(c) Hainan................................................................................................................................
(d) Jiangsu...............................................................................................................................
(e) Qinghai...............................................................................................................................
(f) Shandong.............................................................................................................................
(g) Yunnan................................................................................................................................
(h) Zhejiang 74
(i) Other Provincial Policies and Programs (Fujian, Gansu,
Hebei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi,
Liaoning, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Shanxi, Sichuan Tibet, Xinjiang)
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5
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Distribution
And Marketing |
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5.1 Module Sales Channels .........................................................................................................................
5.2 Project Developers, System Integrators and Installers
................................................................................
(a) Manufacturer System Integrators/Installers .............................................................................
(b) Specialized System Integrators/Installers.................................................................................
(c) BIPV..................................................................................................................................
(d)
Off-grid .............................................................................................................................
5.3 Major Developers..................................................................................................................................
(a)
Manufacturer-Developers.......................................................................................................
(b) Major Power Developers / Utilities............................................................................................
(c) Manufacturer - Utility Joint Ventures (JVs) ...............................................................................
5.4 International Players
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6
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Market
Forecast (2010 - 2014) |
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6.1 Global and Domestic Scenarios................................................................................................................
6.2 National Market Demand by Forecast Scenario
..........................................................................................
(a) Balanced Energy Scenario ....................................................................................................
(b) Green World Scenario ..........................................................................................................
(c) Production Led Scenario ......................................................................................................
6.3 National Market Demand by Application Segment
.......................................................................................
(a) On-Grid Ground-mounted .....................................................................................................
(b) On-Grid Building-Mounted .....................................................................................................
(c) Off-Grid Rural......................................................................................................................
(d) Off-Grid Industrial ...............................................................................................................
6.4 Unrisked National Project Pipeline.............................................................................................................
6.5 Market Summary ..................................................................................................................................
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List
of Figures |
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Figure 1 China's PV Market Growth 2005-2009 (MW)
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Figure 2 Newly Installed Capacity in China by
Application (%)...............................................................................
Figure 3 Change in Application Shares 2008-2009...............................................................................................
Figure 4 Market Application Segment Sizes (2007-2009)......................................................................................
Figure 5 Off-Grid Industrial Segment by Application
............................................................................................
Figure 6 China PV Market by System Size in 2009
(%).........................................................................................
Figure 7 Change in System Size Shares 2008-2009
(%).......................................................................................
Figure 8 Provincial Distribution of PV Market
in China 2009 (MW)...........................................................................
Figure 9 Top Ten Provincial Markets in China
in 2008 (MW)..................................................................................
Figure 10 Change in Regional Market Shares 2008-2009
(%)................................................................................
Figure 11 Provincial Market Shares (%) - West
China..........................................................................................
Figure 12 Provincial Market Shares (%) - East
China...........................................................................................
Figure 13 Provincial Market Shares (%) - North
China..........................................................................................
Figure 14 Provincial Market Shares (%) - Central
China.......................................................................................
Figure 15 Provincial Market Shares (%) - South
China ........................................................................................
Figure 16 Installed System Price Range On-Grid
2008-2010..................................................................................
Figure 17 Average Installed System Prices 2007-2010.........................................................................................
Figure 18 Distribution of Application Type for
Golden Sun Approvals ......................................................................
Figure 19 Provincial Distribution of Golden Sun
Approvals.....................................................................................
Figure 20 China's Downstream Module Sales Channels.........................................................................................
Figure 21 China Market Forecast by Scenario....................................................................................................
Figure 22 China Market Demand Forecast 2010-2014
(Balanced Energy).................................................................
Figure 23 China Market Demand Forecast 2010-2014
(Green World) ......................................................................
Figure 24 China Market Demand Forecast 2010-2014
(Production Led) ...................................................................
Figure 25 Application Segment Shares in 2009
vs. 2014 (Green World) ...................................................................
Figure 26 On-Grid Ground-Mount Forecast by Scenario
(2010-2014) ......................................................................
Figure 27 On-Grid Building-Mounted Forecast by
Scenario (2010-2014) ...................................................................
Figure 28 Off-Grid Industrial Forecast by Scenario
(2010-2014) ............................................................................
Figure 29 China Off-Grid Rural Forecast by Scenario
(2010-2014) ..........................................................................
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List
of Tables |
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Table
1 Chinese PV Market 2005-2009 (MW) .......................................................................................................
Table 2 Five Stages of China's PV Market Growth
.................................................................................................
Table 3 Major On-Grid Ground-Mounted Projects
(>1 MW) in China in 2009.................................................................
Table 4 Major On-Grid Building-Mounted Projects
in China in 2009.............................................................................
Table 5 Major Off-Grid Mini-Grid Projects in
China in 2009 - early 2010.......................................................................
Table 6 Off-Grid Rural Ground-Mount projects
under Golden Sun Program...................................................................
Table 7 Major Off-Grid SHS Projects in China
in 2009 - early 2010............................................................................
Table 8 Highlights of the Renewable Energy
Law...................................................................................................
Table 9 Highlights of Medium and Long-Term
Development Plan for Renewable Energy..................................................
Table 10 China's Selected Renewable Energy
Target.............................................................................................
Table 11 China's Three Major On-Grid Incentive
Mechanisms .................................................................................
Table 12 Highlights of China's BIPV Law (2009)
...................................................................................................
Table 13 Golden Sun Program Highlights..............................................................................................................
Table 14 China Market Demand by Segment (Green
World) ....................................................................................
Table 15 Feed-in Tariff Projects in Ningxia
(40 MW) .............................................................................................
Table 16 Golden Sun Off-grid Projects................................................................................................................
Table 17 Regional PV Program Summary...............................................................................................................
Table 18 Beijing's Solar City Targets....................................................................................................................
Table 19 Details on Jiangsu's Provincial Feed-in
Tariff.............................................................................................
Table 20 Allocated Capacity from Jiangsu Feed-in
Tariff by Developer........................................................................
Table 21 Qinghai Qaidam PV Development Zone
Targets 2010-2030..........................................................................
Table 22 Highlights of Qinghai Solar Development
Plan 2009-2015.............................................................................
Table 23 Highlights of Xining Municipal PV
Policies..................................................................................................
Table 24 Highlights of Kunming's Urban Solar
PV Program.........................................................................................
Table 25 Major Manufacturer - System Integrators/Installers....................................................................................
Table 26 General System Integrators/Installers......................................................................................................
Table 27 BIPV System Integrators/Installers.........................................................................................................
Table 28 Off-Grid System Integrators/Installers
...................................................................................................
Table 29 Off-Grid Street and Garden Lighting
System Integrators/Installers................................................................
Table 30 Top 100 Project Developers in China.......................................................................................................
Table 31 Major Project Developers under Golden
Sun Program..................................................................................
Table 32 Major Manufacturer's Project Development
Details....................................................................................
Table 33 Major SOE Power Developers / Utilities
in PV Project Development................................................................
Table 34 Major Manufacturer / Utility Joint
Ventures (2009).....................................................................................
Table 35 International Firms Active in China's
Downstream (short-list) ......................................................................
Table 36 Forecast Scenarios: Key Scenario Inputs
................................................................................................
Table 37 Forecast Scenarios: Strategic Outcomes.................................................................................................
Table 38 Global Pricing Environment 2010-2014.....................................................................................................
Table 39 China Market Forecast by Scenario
.......................................................................................................
Table 40 China Market Demand by Segment (Balanced
Energy) ...............................................................................
Table 41 China Market Demand by Segment (Green
World) .....................................................................................
Table 42 China Market Demand by Segment (Production
Led) .................................................................................
Table 43 Un-Risked Project Pipeline (>10
MW)......................................................................................................
Table 44 The Provinces of China .......................................................................................................................
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INDIA |
I1
- I86 |
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1
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Executive
Summary |
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2
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2009
PV Market In India |
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2.1 Market Analysis By Installation Type ............................................................................................................
(a) Off-Grid Rural ...........................................................................................................................
(b) Off-Grid Industrial .....................................................................................................................
(c) On-Grid Ground-Mounted ...........................................................................................................
(d) On-Grid Building-Mounted ...........................................................................................................
2.2 Market Analysis By System Power Size..........................................................................................................
2.3 Market Analysis By Region ..........................................................................................................................
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3
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Market Pricing |
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4
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Policy
Environment and PV Funding |
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4.1 Economic Background................................................................................................................................
4.2 Energy Background ..................................................................................................................................
4.3 Renewable Energy Policy............................................................................................................................
(a)
The 11th Five-year Plan
(b) Lobbying
(c) The NAPCC
(d) India's Renewable Energy Agencies
4.4 The National Solar Mission ........................................................................................................................
(a)
NSM Phases ...........................................................................................................................
(b) Solar Uptake...........................................................................................................................
(c) Solar Incentives.......................................................................................................................
(d) Rooftop PV..............................................................................................................................
(d) Off Grid..................................................................................................................................
(e) NSM Funding............................................................................................................................
(e) Other Details of the NSM............................................................................................................
(e) NSM criticisms.........................................................................................................................
4.5 Regional PV Policies .................................................................................................................................
(a) Gujarat .................................................................................................................................
(b) Haryana ................................................................................................................................
(c) Himachal Pradesh ....................................................................................................................
(d) Karnataka ..............................................................................................................................
(e) Maharashtra ..........................................................................................................................
(f) Punjab ..................................................................................................................................
(g) Rajasthan .............................................................................................................................
(h) West Bengal .........................................................................................................................
(i) Other (Andhra Pradesh, Chandigarh, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir,
Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) ..................
4.6 Governmental PV Programs ......................................................................................................................
(a) MNRE Solar Photovoltaic Program ...............................................................................................
(b) Remote Village Electrification (RVE) Program .................................................................................
(c)
Solar Lantern Mission ...............................................................................................................
(d) Akshay Urja Shops ..................................................................................................................
(e) PV in Urban Areas ...................................................................................................................
(f) Solar Cities .............................................................................................................................
(g) Green Buildings .......................................................................................................................
(h) Tail-end Grid-Connected Solar Power Plants .................................................................................
(i) Solar Lighting for SEZs...............................................................................................................
(j) Solar Billboards.........................................................................................................................
(k) Solar Water Pumps...................................................................................................................
(l) Telecom .................................................................................................................................
4.7 Other PV Programs ................................................................................................................................
(a) Light a Billion Lives ..................................................................................................................
(b) Barefoot College - Solar Program ................................................................................................
(c) Other Non-Governmental Programs .............................................................................................
4.8 Financing Programs ...............................................................................................................................
(a) IREDA Interest Subsidy Scheme .................................................................................................
(b) Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC) .........................................................................................
(c) Micro-finance .........................................................................................................................
(d) Gramin Banks ..........................................................................................................................
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5
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Distribution
And Marketing |
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5.1 Module Sales Channels ...........................................................................................................................
5.2 Major Downstream Firms .........................................................................................................................
(a) Major India Based/Headquartered Manufacturers with a Downstream
Presence ...................................
(b) Major India Based/Headquartered System Integrators / Installers
.....................................................
(c) Major India Based/Headquartered Distributors ...............................................................................
(d) Major International Companies with a Significant Marketing
Presence in India ......................................
(e) Major India Based/Headquartered Project Developers .....................................................................
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6
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Market
Forecast |
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6.1 Global and Domestic Scenario Assumptions .................................................................................................
6.2 National Market Demand by Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................
(a) Balanced Energy Scenario .......................................................................................................
(b) Green World Scenario .............................................................................................................
(c) Production Led Scenario .........................................................................................................
6.3 National Market Demand by Application Segment .........................................................................................
(a)
Off-Grid Rural .......................................................................................................................
(b) Off-Grid Industrial .................................................................................................................
(c) On-Grid Ground-mounted ........................................................................................................
(d) On-Grid Building-mounted .......................................................................................................
6.4 Un-risked National Project Pipeline ............................................................................................................
6.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................
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The
Geography of India |
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List
of Figures |
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Figure 1 Indian PV Market 2005 - 2009 (MW)...................................................................................................
Figure 2 Newly Installed Capacity in India by
Application in 2009 (%) ...................................................................
Figure 3 Change in Application Shares in India
2008-2009...................................................................................
Figure 4 Market Application Segment Size 2007-2009.........................................................................................
Figure 5 India's Off-grid Industrial by Sub-Segment............................................................................................
Figure 6 Newly Installed Capacity in India By
System Size In 2009 (MW).................................................................
Figure 7 Indian PV Market Size by State ...........................
Figure 8 Installed System Pricing - Ground-Mount
PV (2008-2010).........................................................................
Figure 9 India's Electricity Generation Mix (2009)................................................................................................
Figure 10 India Module Sales Channel Flow Chart
2009.........................................................................................
Figure 11 India Market Forecast by Scenario.....................................................................................................
Figure 12 India Market Demand by Segment (Balanced
Energy)............................................................................
Figure 13 India Market Demand by Segment (Green
World)...................................................................................
Figure 14 India Market Demand by Segment (Production
Led) ..............................................................................
Figure 15 Application Segment Shares in 2009
vs. 2014 (Green World)...................................................................
Figure 16 India Off-grid Rural Forecast by Scenario
(2010-2014)...........................................................................
Figure 17 India Off-Grid Industrial Forecast
by Scenario (2009-2014).....................................................................
Figure 18 On-Grid Ground-mounted Forecast by
Scenario (2009-2014) ...................................................................
Figure 19 On-Grid Building-mounted Forecast by
Scenario (2009-2014) ..................................................................
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List
of Tables |
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Table 1 Indian PV Market 2005-2009 (MW)..........................................................................................................
Table 2 RVEP Cumulative Installations (as of
3/31/10) ...........................................................................................
Table 3 Indicative Off-Grid Rural Projects
in 2009 and Ongoing ................................................................................
Table 4 Street Lighting/Signaling Projects
in 2009..................................................................................................
Table 5 On-Grid Ground-Mount Projects 2009........................................................................................................
Table 6 On-Grid Ground-Mount Projects (2010
- Ongoing)........................................................................................
Table 7 Major On-Grid Building-Mounted Projects
in India in 2009-Early 2010*..............................................................
Table 8 Gujarat's Solar Power Policy 2009 Open
Tender ...........................................................................................
Table 9 Allotted Capacities by Technology Type
for Gujarat's SPP 2009 35..................................................................
Table 10 Allotted PV Capacities by Developer
for Gujarat's SPP 2009..........................................................................
Table 11 Approved Projects in Orissa ...................................................................................................................
Table 12 The CERC's Benchmark Capital Costs
and FIT rates for PV (2009-2011)..........................................................
Table 13 The National Action Plan on Climate
Change's Eight Missions........................................................................
Table 14 The MNRE's Feed-in Tariff Program:.........................................................................................................
Table 15 MNRE's 36 State Nodal Agencies............................................................................................................
Table 16 Highlights of India's National Solar
Mission................................................................................................
Table 17 The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar
Mission Program Timetable.....................................................................
Table 18 Benchmark Cost assumption (example:
Gujarat)........................................................................................
Table 19 STE & PV FIT rates for 2009-2011 under
the NSM.....................................................................................
Table 20 Timetable for Migration into NSM............................................................................................................
Table 21 NSM Rooftop Program Capacity by System
Type........................................................................................
Table 22 Timetable Rooftop Project Management
...................................................................................................
Table 23 Gujarat Policy Summary.........................................................................................................................
Table 24 Solar Project Cost Parameters (Gujarat)...................................................................................................
Table 25 Haryana Policy Summary ......................................................................................................................
Table 26 Haryana Rooftop Rebate Program ...........................................................................................................
Table 27 Himachal Pradesh Policy Summary...........................................................................................................
Table 28 Karnataka Policy Summary ....................................................................................................................
Table 29 Punjab Policy Summary ........................................................................................................................
Table 30 Rajasthan Policy Summary.....................................................................................................................
Table 31 West Bengal Policy Summary .................................................................................................................
Table 32 Policy Summary for Other States/UTs.......................................................................................................
Table 33 Capacity and Financial Allotment for
SPV Program 2009-2012.......................................................................
Table 34 MNRE SPV Program Decentralized PV
Systems Specifications........................................................................
Table 35 Maximum CFA Grants under the RVEP
Program 2009-2010 ...........................................................................
Table 36 MNRE Solar PV Program Details (HAREDA)
................................................................................................
Table 37 MNRE Solar PV Program Details (NEDCAP)
................................................................................................
Table 38 RVEP Cumulative Installations (as
of 03/31/10) .........................................................................................
Table 39 MNRE Urban Areas Program: Details
on Subsidies by System Type.................................................................
Table 40 MNRE Urban Areas Program Installation
Targets.........................................................................................
Table 41 Manufacturers Active in the Downstream.................................................................................................
Table 42 System Integrators/Installers in the
Indian Market.....................................................................................
Table 43 Major Distributors/Wholesalers in the
Indian Market....................................................................................
Table 44 Major International Companies Active
in the Downstream.............................................................................
Table 45 Major Project Developers / Proposed Projects
..........................................................................................
Table 46 Forecast Scenarios: Key Scenario Inputs.................................................................................................
Table 47 Forecast Scenarios: Strategic Outcomes..................................................................................................
Table 48 Global Pricing Environment 2010-2014......................................................................................................
Table 49 India Market Forecast by Scenario..........................................................................................................
Table 50 India's Market Demand in the Balanced
Energy Scenario (MW)......................................................................
Table 51 India's Market Demand in the Green World
Scenario (MW)............................................................................
Table 52 India's Market Demand in the Production
Led Scenario (MW)........................................................................
Table 53 Unrisked Project Pipeline (>1 MW)...........................................................................................................
Table
54 Regions of India..................................................................................................................................
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SOUTH
KOREA |
K1
- K60
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1
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Executive
Summary |
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2
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2009
PV Market In South Korea |
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2.1 Market Analysis By Application Segment .........................................................................................................
(a)
On-Grid Ground-Mounted ..................................................................................................................
(b) On-Grid Building-Mounted .................................................................................................................
(c) Off-Grid Rural & Industrial .................................................................................................................
(d) Off-Grid Rural & Industrial .................................................................................................................
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2.2 Market Analysis By System Power Size ..........................................................................................................
2.3
Market Analysis By Region ...........................................................................................................................
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3
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PV System Installed Pricing |
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4
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Policy
Environment and PV Funding |
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4.1 Economic Policy ........................................................................................................................................
4.2 Energy Policy ...........................................................................................................................................
4.3 Renewable Energy Policy ............................................................................................................................
4.4 Solar PV Policy and Programs ......................................................................................................................
(a) National Feed-in Tariff (FIT) ......................................................................................................
(b) Residential PV Systems .............................................................................................................
(c) Public Institution Program ..........................................................................................................
(d) Regional Energy Programs ..........................................................................................................
(e) Domestic Production .................................................................................................................
(f) Certification ............................................................................................................................
4.5 Policy Summary ......................................................................................................................................
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5
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Distribution
And Marketing |
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5.1 Module Sales Channels ............................................................................................................................
5.2 Project Developers, System Integrators and Installers
...................................................................................
(a) Manufacturer System Integrators/Installers .................................................................................
(b) Specialized System Integrators/Installers.....................................................................................
(c) BIPV......................................................................................................................................
(d)
Off-grid .................................................................................................................................
5.3 Major Developers.....................................................................................................................................
(a)
Manufacturer-Developers..........................................................................................................
(b) Major Power Developers / Utilities...............................................................................................
(c) Manufacturer - Utility Joint Ventures (JVs) ..................................................................................
5.4 International Players................................................................................................................................
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6
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Market
Forecast (2010 - 2014) |
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6.1 Global and Domestic Scenarios...................................................................................................................
6.2 National Market Demand by Forecast Scenario
.............................................................................................
(a) Balanced Energy Scenario .......................................................................................................
(b) Green World Scenario .............................................................................................................
(c) Production Led Scenario ..........................................................................................................
6.3 National Market Demand by Application Segment
...........................................................................................
(a) On-Grid Ground-mounted .........................................................................................................
(b) On-Grid Building-Mounted .........................................................................................................
(c) Off-Grid Rural..........................................................................................................................
(d) Off-Grid Industrial ....................................................................................................................
6.4 Unrisked National Project Pipeline.................................................................................................................
6.5 Market Summary ......................................................................................................................................
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The
Geography Of South Korea |
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List
of Figures |
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Figure 1 South Korea's PV Market Growth
2004-2008 (MW)..................................................................................
Figure 2 South Korea's Feed-in Tariff Installation
Monthly Totals (kW)....................................................................
Figure 3 South Korea's Feed-in Tariff Installation
Monthly Totals (#)......................................................................
Figure 4 KRW/USD exchange rate volatility (Jan.
2008 - May, 2009).......................................................................
Figure 5 Newly Installed Capacity in South Korea
by Application............................................................................
Figure 6 Market Segment Size Movements (2007-2008).......................................................................................
Figure 7 South Korean Feed-in Tariff PV Installations
(2004-2008).........................................................................
Figure 8 South Korea's Off-grid Segment by Application.......................................................................................
Figure 9 System Size Analysis by total MW Installed
..........................................................................................
Figure 10 System Size Analysis by total number
of Installations............................................................................
Figure 11 Major PV Markets in Korea in 2008 by
Region ......................................................................................
Figure 12 Major PV Markets in Korea in 2008 (Provinces).....................................................................................
Figure 13 Major PV Markets in Korea in 2008 (Cities)...........................................................................................
Figure 14 Installed System Price Range (2008)..................................................................................................
Figure 15 South Korea's Renewable Energy Mix
(2008, 2020 & 2030)......................................................................
Figure 16 South Korean FIT Rate Movement by System
Size (after Sept. 2008).......................................................
Figure 17 South Korean Feed-in Tariff PV Installations
(2004-2008).......................................................................
Figure 18 South Korean Module Sales Channel Flow
Chart in 2008..........................................................................
Figure 19 South Korea Market Forecast by Scenario...........................................................................................
Figure 20 South Korea Market Demand by Segment
(Balanced Energy)...................................................................
Figure 21 South Korea Market Demand by Segment
(Green World).........................................................................
Figure 22 South Korea Market Demand by Segment
(Production Led).....................................................................
Figure 23 Application Segment Shares in 2008
vs. 2013 (Green World)...................................................................
Figure 24 Australian Solar Module Distribution
Channels and Volumes in 2008...........................................................
Figure 25 South Korea On-Grid Building-mounted
Forecast by Scenario..................................................................
Figure 26 South Korea Off-grid Rural & Industrial
Forecast by Scenario..................................................................
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List
of Tables |
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Table 1 Korean PV Market 2005-2009 (MW).....................................................................................................
Table 2 Ground-mounted Systems Installed in
2009 (>900 kW).............................................................................
Table 3 Illustrative On-grid Building-Mounted
Projects in South Korea....................................................................
Table 4 South Korean FIT Rates (2005-2009)...................................................................................................
Table 5 South Korean FIT Rates (2008-2011)
...................................................................................................
Table 6 South Korean Feed-in Tariff PV Installations
(2005-2009).........................................................................
Table 7 South Korean Feed-in Tariff PV Installations
(2009 year to date)...............................................................
Table 8 Annual Caps for FIT System Connections
(2009-2011).............................................................................
Table 9 One Million Green Homes Program Details...............................................................................................
Table 10 One Million Green Homes' PV Component
.............................................................................................
Table 11 One Million Green Homes Program Specifics
for 2009..............................................................................
Table 12 Facilities under the Public Institution
Renewable Obligation Law...............................................................
Table 13 Facility Examples under the Public
Institution Renewable Obligation Law....................................................
Table 14 The MKE's Selected Solar Sector R&D
Firms.........................................................................................
Table 15 South Korean FIT Rates (2008-2011).................................................................................................
Table 16 Major Domestic System Integrators/Installers......................................................................................
Table 17 Major International System integrators/Installers..................................................................................
Table 18 Million Green Homes Certified Installer
List...........................................................................................
Table 19 Forecast Scenarios and Key Assumptions
...........................................................................................
Table 20 South Korea Market Forecast by Scenario...........................................................................................
Table 21 South Korea Market Demand by Segment
(Balanced Energy)...................................................................
Table 22 South Korea Market Demand by Segment
(Green World).........................................................................
Table 23 South Korea Market Demand by
Segment (Production Led).....................................................................
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AUSTRALIA
|
A1
- A87
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.. |
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1
|
Executive
Summary |
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2
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2009
PV Market In Australia |
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2.1 Analysis By Market Segments
(a) Residential..................................................................................................................................
(b) Commercial ................................................................................................................................
(c) Utility .......................................................................................................................................
(d) Community/Government................................................................................................................
(e) Industrial ..................................................................................................................................
(f) Rural ........................................................................................................................................
2.2 Market Analysis by Application Type..........................................................................................................
(a) Off Grid.....................................................................................................................................
(b) On Grid .....................................................................................................................................
2.3
Market Analysis By System Power Size.......................................................................................................
(a)
Small-scale Power Band: <10 kW....................................................................................................
(b) Medium-scale Power Band: 10-100 kW............................................................................................
(c) Large-scale Power Band: 100-1000 kW............................................................................................
(d) Utility Scale >1000 kW..................................................................................................................
2.4 Market Analysis by Region .......................................................................................................................
(a) Australian Capital Territory ........................................................................................................
(b) New South Wales ....................................................................................................................
(c) Northern Territory ...................................................................................................................
(d) Queensland ............................................................................................................................
(e) South Australia........................................................................................................................
(f) Tasmania ...............................................................................................................................
(g) Victoria .................................................................................................................................
(h) Western Australia....................................................................................................................
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3
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Market Pricing |
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3.1 Off-Grid and Pilot Systems Pricing 2009-2010.............................................................................................
3.2 On-Grid Installed System Pricing 2009-2010...............................................................................................
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4
|
Policy
Environment and PV Funding |
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4.1 Economic, Energy And Political Background ................................................................................................
(a)
Solar Homes and Communities Program (SHCP) ...................................................................................
(b)
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) .....................................................................................................
(c)
Renewable Energy Target (RET) ......................................................................................................
(d)
Solar Credits ...............................................................................................................................
(e)
Solar Cities Initiative .....................................................................................................................
(f)
Renewable Remote Power Generation Program (RRPGP) .........................................................................
(g)
Clean Energy Initiative (CEI) ...........................................................................................................
(h)
National Solar Schools Program (NSSP) .............................................................................................
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5
|
Economic
Analysis by State/Territory |
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6
|
Distribution
And Marketing |
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5.1 Module Distribution Channels and Volumes .................................................................................................
5.2 Project Developers, System Integrators, and
Installers ................................................................................
(a) Manufacturers ........................................................................................................................
(b) Wholesalers ............................................................................................................................
(c) Retailers/Installers ..................................................................................................................
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7
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Market
Forecast (2010 - 2014) |
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7.1 Five Year Forecast .................................................................................................................................
7.2 Australia Market Segment Demand (2010 - 2014)..........................................................................................
(a)
Balanced Energy Forecast............................................................................................................
(b)
Green World Forecast..................................................................................................................
(c)
Production Led Forecast..............................................................................................................
7.3
Market Summary.....................................................................................................................................
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List
of Figures |
|
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Figure 1 Australian PV Market by Segment in
2009 (%).........................................................................................
Figure 2 Newly Installed Capacity in Australia
by Segment in 2009 (MW)..................................................................
Figure 3 Residential Market Size in Australia
by Year.............................................................................................
Figure 4 Residential Market Growth Rates in
Australia 2000-2009 ............................................................................
Figure 5 Federal Rebates for PV Systems: SHCP
and Solar Credits ...........................................................................
Figure 6 Federal Rebates for PV Systems: SHCP
and Solar Credits (A$/W) ................................................................
Figure 7 Residential Market Size in 2007 -
2009 by State.......................................................................................
Figure 8 Percentage Residential Market Share
by State..........................................................................................
Figure 9 Solar Credit Support for Medium-Scale
PV Systems....................................................................................
Figure 10 Installed Capacity in Australia by
Application Surface in 2009 (MW)............................................................
Figure 11 Newly Installed Capacity in Australia
by System Size in 2009 (%)...............................................................
Figure 12 Newly Installed Capacity in Australia
by System Size in 2009 (kW)..............................................................
Figure 13 Australian Electricity Rates by state
and Segment (2010)..........................................................................
Figure 14 Off-Grid and Pilot System Installed
System Prices 2009-2011.....................................................................
Figure 15 Grid-Connected Installed System Pricing
(2009-2010)...............................................................................
Figure 16 SHCP Systems Installed 2007-2009 by
Region..........................................................................................
Figure 17 Deemed Solar PV Systems by State
(2009).............................................................................................
Figure 18 PV System Internal Rate of Return
by Region...........................................................................................
Figure 19 Internal Rate of Return: Solar Credit
Sensitivity Analysis............................................................................
Figure 20 Internal Rate of Return: Installed
Cost Sensitivity Analysis.........................................................................
Figure 21 Australian Solar Module Distribution
Channels in 2009................................................................................
Figure 22 Australia Market Forecast by Scenario....................................................................................................
Figure 23 Market Segment Shares 2010-2014 (Green
World)....................................................................................
Figure 24 Australia Market Demand Forecast
2010-2014 (Balanced Energy).................................................................
Figure 25 Australian Market Residential Segment
Forecast (2010-2014)......................................................................
Figure 26 Australian Market Commercial Segment
Forecast (2010-2014)....................................................................
Figure 27 Australia Market Demand Forecast 2010-2014
(Green World)......................................................................
Figure 28 Australian Market Industrial Segment
Forecast (2010-2014).......................................................................
Figure 29 Australian Market Rural Segment Forecast
(2010-2014).............................................................................
Figure 30 Australia Market Demand Forecast
2010-2014 (Production Led)..................................................................
Figure 31 Australian Market Utility Segment
Forecast (2010-2014)............................................................................
Figure 32 Australian Market Community/Government
Segment Forecast (2010-2014)....................................................
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List
of Tables |
|
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Table
1 PV System Requirements to Qualify for RECs..............................................................................................
Table 2 Commercial PV Projects in Australia...........................................................................................................
Table 3 ACT Utility-Scale PV Project Short
List......................................................................................................
Table 4 Utility Segment Solar Projects in Australia
.................................................................................................
Table 5 Community/Government Projects .............................................................................................................
Table 6 Rural PV Projects and Support Levels........................................................................................................
Table 7 Ground-Mount Solar Installation Examples
in Australia..................................................................................
Table 8 On-Grid Roof-Mounted PV Installation
Examples in Australia in 2009/10...........................................................
Table 9 Feed-in Tariffs by State/Territory
...........................................................................................................
Table 10 Australian Population by Region.............................................................................................................
Table 11 Desert Knowledge Centre Australia
Solar Installations ...............................................................................
Table 12 Off-Grid and Pilot System Pricing
Sample Details.......................................................................................
Table 13 On-Grid System Pricing Sample Details....................................................................................................
Table 14 Solar Homes and Communities Plan Criteria..............................................................................................
Table 15 Renewable Energy Target by Year (2010-2030).......................................................................................
Table 16 Solar Credits Multiplier by Year .............................................................................................................
Table 17 Zone Rating and REC Calculations..........................................................................................................
Table 18 Solar Cities Funding and Selected
Consortium Members..............................................................................
Table 19 Timeline for Solar Flagships Projects.......................................................................................................
Table 20 Solar Flagships Short List.....................................................................................................................
Table 21 ACRE Programs and Funding..................................................................................................................
Table 22 Advanced Electricity Storage Technologies
Program Projects......................................................................
Table 23 Renewable Energy Demonstration Program
STE Projects.............................................................................
Table 24 Australian Solar Institute Projects..........................................................................................................
Table 25 Summary of Economic Modeling Variables................................................................................................
Table 26 "Tier 1" Solar PV Firms Operating
in Australia............................................................................................
Table 27 Selected Australian Wholesalers and
Main Product Lines............................................................................
Table 28 Registered Agents for Renewable Energy
Credit Sale (March 2010)..............................................................
Table 29 Forecast Scenarios: Key Scenario Inputs*..............................................................................................
Table 30 Forecast Scenarios: Strategic Outcomes*...............................................................................................
Table 31 Global Pricing Environment 2010-2014.....................................................................................................
Table 32 Australia Market Forecast by Scenario....................................................................................................
Table 33 Australia Market Demand by Segment
(Balanced Energy) (MW)....................................................................
Table 34 Australia Market Demand by Segment
(Green World) (MW)..........................................................................
Table 35 Australia Market Demand by Segment
(Production Led) (MW)......................................................................
Table 36 Regional Description of Australia.............................................................................................................
Table 37 Clean Energy Council Accredited PV
Modules (June 2010)............................................................................
Table 38 Clean Energy Council Approved Inverters
(May 2010).................................................................................
Table 39 Accredited Stand-Alone System Designs/Installers
by State (June 2010).......................................................
Table 40 Accredited Grid-Connect System Installers
by State (June 2010).................................................................
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