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| 1.
Executive Summary |
11-21
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| 2.
Worldwide PV Market Demand in
2007 |
22-139
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2.1 Market Segmentation .............................................................................................................
2.2 World PV Market....................................................................................................................
2.3 Regional Demand Growth.........................................................................................................
2.4 Major PV Markets..................................................................................................................
2.4.1
Germany ....................................................................................................................
2.4.2
Spain ........................................................................................................................
2.4.3
Japan ........................................................................................................................
2.4.4 United
States .............................................................................................................
2.4.5 Rest
of Europe.............................................................................................................
Austria.......................................................................................................................
Belgium......................................................................................................................
Cyprus.......................................................................................................................
Czech
Republic............................................................................................................
France.......................................................................................................................
Greece.......................................................................................................................
Italy..........................................................................................................................
Portugal......................................................................................................................
Switzerland.................................................................................................................
The
Netherlands...........................................................................................................
United
Kingdom ............................................................................................................
2.4.6 Rest
of World...............................................................................................................
Africa.........................................................................................................................
The
Americas ..............................................................................................................
Asia/Pacific
.................................................................................................................
South
Asia ..................................................................................................................
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| 3.
Worldwide PV
Supply in 2007 |
140-165
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3.1 Production Capacity Through The PV Manufacturing Chain................................................................
3.1.1
Summary..................................................................................................................
3.1.2
Silicon Feedstock Supply Capacity.................................................................................
3.1.3
Solar Wafer Manufacturing Capacity .............................................................................
3.1.4
Solar Cell Capacity.....................................................................................................
(a)
Distribution by Technology......................................................................................
(b)
Distribution by Region.............................................................................................
(c)
Solar Cell Capacity Utilization...................................................................................
3.1.5
Crystalline Silicon Solar Module Manufacturing Capacity ....................................................
3.2 PV Chain Production Volumes in 2007...........................................................................................
3.2.1
Silicon Feedstock........................................................................................................
(a)
Silicon Demand For Semiconductor Use......................................................................
(b)
Silicon Demand For Solar Use...................................................................................
(c)
Silicon Supply/Demand Mass Balance In 2007..............................................................
3.2.2
Solar Cell Production (Crystalline Silicon and Thin Film).......................................................
3.2.3
Global Mass Balance of Solar Cells in 2007........................................................................
3.2.4
Correlating Production With The End-Customer Market Size.................................................
3.3 Manufacturing By Company.....................................................................................................
3.3.1
Major Silicon Feedstock Manufacturers............................................................................
3.3.2
Major Wafer Manufacturers...........................................................................................
3.3.3
Major Cell Manufacturers..............................................................................................
(a)
Crystalline Silicon ..................................................................................................
(b)
Thin Films ............................................................................................................
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| 4.
2007: The Year in Review |
166-179
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4.1
Main Corporate Funding Activities.............................................................................................
4.2
Main Corporate Acquisitions/Divestments...................................................................................
4.3 Major Industry Events 2007....................................................................................................
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5. Prices
Through the PV Business Chain |
180-229
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5.1 Polysilicon Pricing ...................................................................................................................
5.1.1 Historical
Context........................................................................................................
5.1.2 Evolving
Customer Relationships.....................................................................................
5.1.3 Prices
Overview..........................................................................................................
5.1.4 Long
Term Contracts 5-10 Years....................................................................................
5.1.5 Short-Term
Contracts (Up to 1 Year) .............................................................................
5.1.6 Spot
Prices................................................................................................................
5.2 Wafer Prices...........................................................................................................................
5.3 Crystalline Silicon Cell Prices......................................................................................................
5.4
Module Factory Gate Prices ......................................................................................................
5.4.1 Factory
Gate Module Price Definitions..............................................................................
5.4.2 European
Solar Module Factory Gate Definitions................................................................
5.4.3 United
States Solar Module Factory Gate Definitions..........................................................
5.4.4 Japanese
Solar Module Factory Gate Definitions................................................................
5.5 Summary of Global Factory Gate Module Price Themes...................................................................
5.6 PV Chain Summary..................................................................................................................
5.7 Online Retail Module Prices and Efficiencies..................................................................................
5.7.1 Methodology...............................................................................................................
5.7.2 Survey
Profile.............................................................................................................
5.7.3 Regional
Price Analysis..................................................................................................
(a)
Regional Price Analysis
(b)
European Prices by Power Band
(c)
United States Prices by Power Band
(d)
European vs United States Price on Dollar Basis
5.7.4 Company
Price Analysis: Average Retail Prices by Manufacturer............................................
(a)
125 Watts and Above By Company
(b)
Monthly Price Moves
(c)
Average Prices by Module Model
(d)
Lowest Price Points
5.7.5
Additions to Price Points in 2007 ...................................................................................
5.7.6
Crystalliine Silicon Module Efficiencies.............................................................................
(a)
Index Methodology
(b)
Index Results
5.7.3
United States PV Installed System Prices........................................................................
5.8 Worldwide Large Installed PV System Prices.................................................................................
5.8.1 German
Installed PV System Prices..................................................................................
5.8.2 Japanese
Installed PV System Prices...............................................................................
5.8.3 United
States Installed PV System Prices.........................................................................
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| 6.
Annual
Market Survey of Downtream PV Companies* |
230-250
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6.1 Profile of Survey Participants..............................................................................................
6.2 Market Performance in 2007...............................................................................................
6.3 Present Commercial
Environment.........................................................................................
6.4 2008 Market Expectations..................................................................................................
* this year's survey is based on the responses of
Dealers and System Integrators
received between January 17
- February 11, 2008.
click
here to see full list of Survey Questions
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7. PV Supply/Demand
Five Year Forecast Scenarios (2008-2012) |
251-314
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7.1 Key Messages From PV Market Performance In 2007.....................................................................
7.1.1
Demand Side.............................................................................................................
7.1.2 Supply
Side .............................................................................................................
7.1.3 2007
Supply/Demand Balance.......................................................................................
7.2 Scenario Introduction...............................................................................................................
7.2.1
Overview..................................................................................................................
7.2.2 Market
Drivers...........................................................................................................
7.3 Five Year Scenarios (2008 - 2012)..............................................................................................
7.3.1
The Scenario Approach ..............................................................................................
(a)
BALANCED ENERGY SCENARIO
(b)
GREEN WORLD SCENARIO
(c)
PRODUCTION LED SCENARIO
7.4 Scenario Forecast Data............................................................................................................
7.4.1
Summary Outcomes..................................................................................................
7.4.2
World Market Demand...............................................................................................
7.4.3
Learning Curve Correlation.........................................................................................
7.4.4
Summary of Regional Market Demand Outcomes (2008-2012)...........................................
7.4.5
Market Application Segment Forecasts........................................................................
7.5 Regional Market Commentary....................................................................................................
(a)
Germany ..................................................................................................................
(b)
Spain.......................................................................................................................
(c)
Japan.......................................................................................................................
(d)
United States............................................................................................................
(e)
Rest of Europe...........................................................................................................
(f)
Rest of World............................................................................................................
7.6 Supply Scenario Forecasts.....................................................................................................
7.6.1
Cell Production.......................................................................................................
(a)
Status in 2007..................................................................................................
(b)
Total Cell Production Forecast (2008-2012)............................................................
(c)
Crystalline Silicon Cell Production (2008-2012)........................................................
(d) Thin Film Production (2008-2012)........................................................................
7.6.2
Cell Manufacturing Capacity and Utilization...................................................................
7.6.3
Silicon Feedstock Supply (2008-2012) ........................................................................
(a) Solar Demand....................................................................................................
(b) Semiconductor Demand.......................................................................................
(c) Total Silicon Feedstock Demand And Mass Balance...................................................
(d) Silicon Feedstock Manufacturing Capacity .............................................................
7.7 Global Average Production Costs..............................................................................................
(a) Crystalline Silicon...............................................................................................
(b) Thin Film..........................................................................................................
7.8
Global Price and Margin Environment..........................................................................................
7.8.1
2008/2009 Commercial Environment............................................................................
7.8.2
PV System Prices....................................................................................................
7.8.3
2008/08 Module Factory Gate Pricing Levels.................................................................
7.8.4
Global and Regional Factory Gate Prices (2008-2012).....................................................
(a) Global Average Prices..........................................................................................
(b) Major Regional Market Crystalline Module Prices.......................................................
7.8.5
PV Margin Movements..............................................................................................
(a) Crystalline Silicon...............................................................................................
(b) Thin Film..........................................................................................................
7.9
Outlook Summary...................................................................................................................
7.9.1 Global Production Costs, Margins, Prices and Industry Revenues.......................................
7.9.2
Market Growth and Spread........................................................................................
7.9.3
Policy Risk..............................................................................................................
7.9.4
Rapidly Risk Supply Capacity......................................................................................
7.9.5
Handliing a Time of Transition.....................................................................................
7.9.6
"Conventional Wisdom" .............................................................................................
7.9.7
The Ultimate Goal, Self Sustaining Grid Connect Markets.................................................
..
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| Appendix..............................................................................................................................................
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| Charts
and Tables |
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